This paper analyzes the transition from a pay-as-you-go to a fully funded pension system within the framework of endogenous growth in the presence of uncertainty. Gyárfás and Marquardt (2001) prove the possibility of a Pareto improving conversion in a certain world. Two distinct kinds of...

Despite much criticism, economic analyses often use Bayesian belief formation. Yet, widely applicable, empirically founded, non-Bayesian approaches are scarce. I investigate whether Thompson Sampling is a suitable unifying model of belief formation by testing its predictions in a pre-registered...

Using a long-panel dataset of Japanese firms that contains firm-level sales forecasts, we provide evidence on firm-level uncertainty and imperfect information over their life cycle. We find that firms make non-negligible and positively correlated forecast errors. However, they make more precise...

Agents forming adaptive expectations generally make systematic mistakes. This characterization has fostered the rejection of adaptive expectations in macroeconomics. Experimental evidence, however, shows that in complex environments human subjects frequently rely on adaptive heuristics –...

This essay links some of my own work on expectations, learning and bounded rationality to the inspiring ideas of Jean-Michel Grandmont. In particular, my work on consistent expectations and behavioral learning equilibria may be seen as formalizations of JMG's ideas of self-fulfilling mistakes....

In this paper we study the implications of population ageing in an economy with a sizeable non-traded goods sector. To this effect a highly stylized micro-founded macro model is constructed in which the age structure of the population plays a non-trivial role. The model distinguishes separate...