We simulate the FRB/US model and a number of statistical models to quantify some of the risks stemming from the effective lower bound (ELB) on the federal funds rate and to assess the efficacy of adjustments to the federal funds rate target, balance sheet policies, and forward guidance to...

There is growing evidence that the empirical Phillips curve within the US has changed significantly since the early 1980's. In particular, inflation persistence has declined sharply. The paper demonstrates that this decline is consistent with a standard Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) model in...

This paper addresses the following question: A researcher imposes sign restrictions on impulse responses in a VAR and leaves the response of some variable of interest to some structural shock unconstrained. Under which conditions do the imposed restrictions uniquely pin down the correct sign of...

We study a general equilibrium model in which informational frictions impede entrepreneurs' ability to borrow and banks' ability to intermediate funds. These financial market frictions are embedded in an otherwise-standard dynamic New Keynesian model. We find that exogenous shocks have an...

At the zero lower bound (ZLB), expectations about the future path of monetary or fiscal policy are crucial. We model expectations formation under level-k thinking, a form of bounded rationality introduced by García-Schmidt and Woodford (2019) and Farhi and Werning (2017), consistent with...

It is difficult to assess the effectiveness of investment strategies that screen companies based on environmental criteria to hedge climate change risk because physical risks have not yet fully materialized and policies to combat climate change are usually widely anticipated. This paper...

This paper advocates chaining the decomposition of shocks into contributions from forecast errors to the shock decomposition of the latent vector to better understand model inference about latent variables. Such a double decomposition allows us to gauge the inuence of data on latent variables,...

What is the role of contracting schemes for the welfare costs of nominal rigidities over the business cycle? We examine 4 different modeling schemes of nominal rigidities that all have the same average duration of contracts. We find that Calvo (1983) wage and price contracts may deliver welfare...

This paper asks the following two questions: First, can a model with nominal rigidities in wage and price setting account for the average welfare costs of business cycle fluctuations identified in Gali, Gertler, and Lopez-Salido (2003)? Second, do we need to agree on a particular scheme for...