We estimate the premium associated with time-varying market betas without using rolling betas or instruments. Instead, we use a new conditional-risk factor, which is a market timing strategy defined as the unexpected return on the market times the ex ante price of risk. The factor is a powerful...

The central formula in asset pricing relates the price of an Arrow-Debreu security to an investor's preferences and beliefs: Price of an Arrow-Debreu security = Preferences Beliefs. We observe the prices of Arrow-Debreu securities in the option markets. But we do not directly observe the extent...

The central formula in asset pricing relates the price of an Arrow-Debreu security to an investor's preferences and beliefs: Price of an Arrow-Debreu security = Preferences Beliefs. We observe the prices of Arrow-Debreu securities in the option markets. But we do not directly observe the extent...

We characterize when physical probabilities, marginal utilities, and the discount rate can be recovered from observed state prices for several future time periods. We make no assumptions of the probability distribution, thus generalizing the time-homogeneous stationary model of Ross (2015)....

I present a method for deriving the entire physical return distributions of individual stocks directly from option prices. The method is theoretically nested in an equilibrium model, obeys the law-of one-price, and can be implemented in real-time in a forward-looking manner. The method performs...

We conduct representative large-scale surveys of U.S. citizens aimed at measuring perceptions of large corporations' environmental, social, and governance performance and investigate how these perceptions affect the public support for economic policies. The public demands corporations to behave...

We use data from the aggregate stock and dividend futures markets to quantify how investors' expectations about economic growth evolve across horizons in response to the new coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak and subsequent policy responses until July 2020. Dividend futures, which are claims to...