We propose a new approach to imposing economic constraints on time-series forecasts of the equity premium. Economic constraints are used to modify the posterior distribution of the parameters of the predictive return regression in a way that better allows the model to learn from the data. We...

Faced with the problem of pricing complex contingent claims, an investor seeks to make his valuations robust to model uncertainty. We construct a notion of a model- uncertainty-induced utility function and show that model uncertainty increases the investor's effective risk aversion. Using the...

Studies have identified an increase in the level of average stock return volatility. In this paper, we use the management forecast error as a proxy for disclosure quality to investigate the relationship between management forecast errors and idiosyncratic risk, as management forecasts are...

This paper deals with simultaneous interactions between the determinants of the US yield curve. For this purpose, we derive a multivariate unobserved components model based on the expectation hypothesis. The influencing factors of the term structure that arise from the structural model are a...

In the three-factor model of Fama and French (1993), portfolio returns are explained by the factors Small Minus Big (SMB) and High Minus Low (HML) which capture returns related to firm capitalization (size) and the book-to-market ratio (B/M). In the standard approach of the model, both the test...

Kirchler et al. (2012) make a number of contributions to experimental research on asset markets. One of their findings is that the levels of cash holdings of traders do not affect asset prices when fundamentals follow a constant time trajectory. We report a new experiment in which we replicate...

Este articulo se enfoca en el analisis de los modelos de prediccion de retornos financieros. En particular se estudian el modelo CAPM, el modelo Reward Beta y el modelo de tres factores de Fama y French. El objetivo es poder determinar mediante este analisis que modelo explica de mejor manera...

The main goal of this study is to analyse the ability of the implied volatility index (VIX) to incorporate current stock market information that is relevant for the volatility forecasts. Employing historical market volatility, market trading volume and significant stock market returns as...

This study investigates a simple theoretical model that explains how asset prices are affected by information risk and voluntary dissemination. Within this framework, we search for testing the impact of introducing disclosure risk on asset pricing model. The model offers a unified theoretical...