A financial distress of company should be able anticipated smartly by its management to rerun the business without having any loss due to business failure. Thus, we need a model which could provide an early signal to company the probability of financial distress so that remedial efforts can be...

We extend the Hidden Markov Model for defaults of Crowder, Davis, and Giampieri (2005) to include covariates. The covariates enhance the prediction of transition probabilities from high to low default regimes. To estimate the model, we extend the EM estimating equations to account for the time...

Changes in collateralization have been implicated in significant default (or near-default) events during the financial crisis, most notably with AIG. We have developed a framework for quantifying this effect based on moving between Merton-type and Black-Cox-type structural default models. Our...

We investigate how idiosyncratic lender shocks impact corporate investment. Lenders with recent default experience write stricter loan contracts, leading to a reduction in real investment for borrowing firms. The decline in investment is not attributable to loan riskiness, borrower's agency...

This paper investigates the impact of recourse on the workout process of portfolio commercial mortgage loans. A generalized model of mortgage workout with stochastic property value appreciation is developed and closed form expressions are derived for the relations between recourse and credit...

This article presents a new model for valuing a credit default swap (CDS) contract that is affected by multiple credit risks of the buyer, seller and reference entity. We show that default dependency has a significant impact on asset pricing. In fact, correlated default risk is one of the most...

We introduce a new distance-to-default (DD) measure based on observable covariates, allowing us to bypass any model-based inference (e.g., Merton, 1974), that works well. It is based on the following result: The default event defined by endogenous credit-risk models, a sufficiently low asset...

We develop a new model for solvency contagion that can be used to quantify systemic risk in stress tests of financial networks. In contrast to many existing models it allows for the spread of contagion already before the point of default and hence can account for contagion due to distress and...