This paper introduces a novel consumption-based variable, cyclical consumption, and examines its predictive properties for stock returns. Future expected stock returns are high (low) when aggregate consumption falls (rises) relative to its trend and marginal utility from current consumption is...

Rapach, Ringgenberg and Zhou (2016) claim that for the sample period 1973 to 2014 "short interest is arguably the strongest known predictor of aggregate stock returns", that it "outperforms a host of popular predictors", and that it represents "informed traders who are able to anticipate changes...

This paper shows that portfolio constraints have important implications for management compensation and performance evaluation. In particular, in the presence of portfolio constraints, allowing for benchmarking can be beneficial. Benchmark design arises as an alternative effort inducement...

The finance literature documents a relation between labor income and the cross-section of stock returns. One possible explanation for this is the hedging decisions of investors with relative wealth concerns. This implies a negative risk premium associated with stock returns correlated with local...

The relative predictability of returns and dividends is a central issue since it forms the paradigm to interpret asset price variation. A little studied question is how dividend smoothing, as a choice of corporate policy, affects predictability. We show that, even if dividends are supposed to be...

This paper develops an empirical test of the q-theory production based asset pricing model. In general equilibrium, with habit utility and adjustment costs of investment, it must be the case that when the consumption surplus predicts stock returns corresponding investment patterns must predict...

Time variation in the discount rate affects investment and employment decisions in a manner consistent with Q-theory predictions. This evidence is uncovered when using cyclical consumption as proxy for the discount rate. The results, which are consistent across both U.S. and international data,...

This paper tests the cross-section implications of quot;keeping up with the Jonesesquot; (KUJ) preferences in an international setting. When agents have KUJ preferences, in the presence of un-diversifiable non-financial wealth, both world and domestic risk (the idiosyncratic component of...

The paper examines whether or not the convergence of European economies towards Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the launch of the single currency leads to an increase in stock market integration through a reduction in investment barriers. We estimate a conditional asset pricing model,...

To date little is known about how long equity ownership lasts, what determines its length, and whether ownership duration is related to firm performance. Using a unique time series of equity holdings over eleven years, we find that on average the firm's largest owner stays less than three years...