We compare the performance of popular covariance forecasting models in the context of a portfolio of major European equity indices. We find that models based on high-frequency data offer a clear advantage in terms of statistical accuracy. They also yield more theoretically consistent predictions...

Real-time macroeconomic data reflect the information available to market participants, whereas final data's containing revisions and released with a delays' overstate the information set available to them. We document that the in-sample and out-of-sample Treasury return predictability is...

A small but ambitious literature uses affine arbitrage-free models to estimate jointly U.S. Treasury term premiums and the term structure of equity risk premiums. Within this approach, this paper identifies the parameter restrictions that are consistent with a simple dividend discount model,...

This study documents strong mean aversion in U.S. fixed income returns (but not stock returns) at 5-20 year horizons. These results are only slightly weaker for nominal returns than for real returns and prevail regardless of the period examined (1926-2011, 1951-2011, 1857-1925 or 1857-2011). I...