Ever since Harry Markowitz published his seminal paper on portfolio selection, investors have incorporated estimates of future volatilities and correlations into their asset allocation process. While portfolio construction methods continue to evolve, many investors continue to forecast...

From the painful unwinding of the S&L crisis to the onset of the most recent recession, equity and bond-friendly secular declines in interest and inflation rates gave the investing masses license to stretch Markowitz's Modern Portfolio Theory beyond its contextual foundations and to extrapolate...

We introduce a multivariate Hawkes process with constraints on its conditional density. It is a multivariate point process with conditional intensity similar to that of a multivariate Hawkes process but certain events are forbidden with respect to boundary conditions on a multidimensional...

When an event is anticipated, the firm's stock return around the announcement of the event may have an inconsistent sign: a positive sign around negative news, or vice versa. We attempt to quantify the frequency of this problem, first with a brief mathematical model and simulation, then with...

We consider the problem of superhedging under volatility uncertainty for an investor allowed to dynamically trade the underlying asset, and statically trade European call options for all possible strikes with some given maturity. This problem is classically approached by means of the Skorohod...

In this paper we investigate model-independent bounds for exotic options written on a risky asset using infinite-dimensional linear programming methods. Using arguments from the theory of Monge-Kantorovich mass-transport we establish a dual version of the problem that has a natural financial...

This lecture is given at the University of Leonard de Vinci, in Paris, France, to students of the School of Engineer program in Finance. It is a general introduction to the understanding of building blocks of the non-gaussian world and the shortcomings of the normal paradigm when pricing and...

A framework which consistently and fully integrates market, credit and country transfer risks of a general portfolio of financial assets in a multi-period setup is developed. An appropriate definition of exposure, loss-given-defaults and loss-given-transfer-events provides a unified treatment of...

The model derives risky corporate bond prices (or equivalently credit spreads) subject to credit default and migration risk, based on an extended version of the Jarrow, Lando and Turnbull model, under a risk-neutral framework, as a result of the simulation of a continuous time, time-homogeneous...

In this paper we extend the methodology of our earlier work (Papailias and Thomakos, 2011) on a modified moving average technical trading rule by allowing short sales. We show how short sales change the trading rule which now acts as a dynamic trailing "stop-and-reverse", instead of a dynamic...