We investigate carry trade opportunities in major currencies against the US Dollar over the period 2 Jan 1999 to 31 Dec 2012. There is evidence of significant Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro and Japanese Yen (JPY) carry trades during non-crisis periods. The AUD (JPY) was an investment (a funding)...

In this paper, we analyse the relationship between the currency carry return and volatility and liquidity risk factors. We find that both categories of risk factors are relevant to understanding and explaining carry return, with an outperformance for volatility ones especially the global FX...

This study empirically examines the effect of foreign exchange (FX) market liquidity risk and volatility on the excess returns of currency carry trades. In contrast to the existent literature, we construct an alternative proxy of liquidity risk - violations of no arbitrage bounds in the forward...

This paper examines the central bank intervention in the yen/dollar market and its influence on the foreign exchange traders' speculative positions. We observe that speculators predominantly take up the opposite side of the transaction to the central bank. They appear to increase their relative...

We compare the effects of the US macro news on the exchange rates of carry trade target currencies and safe-haven currencies in the post-GFC period. Relying on the data of 5-min changes of exchange rates, we find significant responses of currencies to the surprises of the US macro news. The...

In this study, we test a set of country macro sentiment indexes that measure the trailing sentiment on both scheduled and unscheduled economic and geopolitical news events. We develop a cross-over strategy in the FX market based on short to long-term news sentiment inflection points covering the...

We analyze the worst currency carry loss episodes in recent decades, including causes, attribution by currency, timing, and the duration of carry drawdowns. To explore the determinants of the length of carry losses, a model of carry drawdown duration is estimated. We find evidence that drawdown...

There is already a substantial literature documenting the fact that low yield currencies typically appreciate during times of global financial stress and behave as safe havens. The main objective of this paper is to find out what the fundamentals of safe haven currencies are. We analyse a large...

We sort currencies by countries' consumption growth over the past four quarters. Currency portfolios of countries experiencing consumption booms have higher Sharpe ratios than those of countries going through a consumption-based recession. A carry strategy that goes short in countries that are...