We identify America's First Great Moderation, a recession-free 16-year period from 1841 until 1856, that represents the longest economic expansion in U.S. history. Occurring in the wake of the debt-deleveraging cycle of the late 1830s, this “take-off” period's high rates of economic growth...

Inflation is a fundamental macroeconomic risk factor for a broad range of asset classes. Since the 1980s, global inflation has generally trended lower and inflation shocks have become less persistent despite, at times, considerable commodity-price volatility. Will this lower inflation trend...

This paper presents new annual estimates of U.S. production of pig iron and imports of pig iron products dating back to 1827. These estimates are used to assess the vulnerability of the antebellum iron industry to foreign competition and the role of the tariff in fostering the industry's early...

Most major American industrial business cycles from around 1880 to the First World War were caused by fluctuations in the size of the cotton harvest due to economically exogenous factors such as weather. Wheat and corn harvests did not affect industrial production; nor did the cotton harvest...

The persistent downturn in productivity growth during the past two decades has cast doubts on global economic prospects. Frequently cited causes include a dearth of productivity-enhancing ideas, an aging population, and a shift to service-based economies. While we acknowledge the role each of...

Between 1807 and 1815, U.S. imports of manufactured goods were severely cut by Jefferson's trade embargo, subsequent non-importation measures, and the War of 1812. These disruptions are commonly believed to have spurred early U.S. industrialization by promoting the growth of nascent domestic...

Most major American industrial business cycles from around 1880 to the First World War were caused by fluctuations in the size of the cotton harvest due to economically exogenous factors such as weather. Wheat and corn harvests did not affect industrial production; nor did the cotton harvest...