-cycle states. We show that forecasts for recessions are subject to a large negative systematic forecast error (forecasters … overestimate growth), while forecasts for recoveries are subject to a positive systematic forecast error. Forecasts made for … expansions have, if anything, a small systematic forecast error for large forecast horizons. When we link information about the …

The purpose of the present paper is to investigate the structure and dynamics of professionals' forecast of inflation …. Recent papers have focused on their forecast errors and how they may be affected by informational rigidities, or … multi-period forecast and, thereby, the expected momentum of inflation. Using number survey-based data for the US and UK, we …

endpoint forecast model to substantially expand the otherwise short sample periods.Stylized facts of the behavior of long …

find that forecasters (i) have predictable forecast errors; (ii) disagree; (iii) fail to systematically update their … forecast performances. We argue that these micro data facts are qualitatively in line with recent models in which expectations …