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Should We Trust in Leading Indicators? Evidence from the Recent Recession

Drechsel, Katja; Scheufele, Rolf - 2010

joint significant tests are used to evaluate single indicator as well as forecast combination methods. In addition, we use …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271403

Adaptive forecasting of exchange rates with panel data

Morales-Arias, Leonardo; Dross, Alexander - 2010

forecasts than most of the macro 'fundamentals'. Adaptive forecast combinations techniques improve forecasting precision and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271612

Revenue forecasting practices : differences across countries and consequences for forecasting performance

Buettner, Thiess; Kauder, Björn - 2009

forecast errors are small in most countries, the precision of the forecasts measured by the standard deviation of the forecast … lower standard deviation of the forecast error. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271858

Extracting leading indicators of bank fragility from market prices : Estonia focus

Chen, Yu-Fu; Funke, Michael; Männasoo, Kadri - 2006

Banking reform has proved to be one of the most problematic elements of economic transition in central and Eastern Europe. Therefore the paper considers the development of the Estonian banking sector and derives individual banks´ fragility scores during transition. To this end we use...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271924

A conditionally heteroskedastic global inflation model

Morales-Arias, Leonardo; Moura, Guilherme V. - 2010

This article proposes a multivariate model of inflation with conditionally heteroskedastic common and country-specific components. The model is estimated in one-step via Quasi-Maximum Likelihood for the G7 countries for the period Q1-1960 to Q4-2009. It is found that various model specifications...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010272102

Die IAB-Prognose der kurzfristigen Entwicklung auf dem deutschen Arbeitsmarkt: Eine Darstellung der Methode auf Basis der Sommerprognose 2008

Bach, Hans-Uwe; Gartner, Hermann; Klinger, Sabine; … - 2009

researchers. IAB’s disaggregation of the forecast is unique. It provides information on unemployment by social codes II and III …. Forecast values in the balance-sheet are found by means of econometric forecasting, trend forecasting or plausible assumptions …. The final forecast appears after a few iterations when all parts of the balance sheet are attuned to each other. Forecast …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010272260

Banking crises and crisis dating: Theory and evidence

Boyd, John H.; De Nicolò, Gianni; Loukoianova, Elena - 2010

We formulate a simple theoretical model of a banking industry that we use to identify and construct theory-based measures of systemic bank shocks (SBS). These measures differ from 'banking crisis' (BC) indicators employed in many empirical studies, which are constructed using primarily...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010272761

Predicting growth rates and recessions: assessing US leading indicators under real-time conditions

Dovern, Jonas; Ziegler, Christina - 2008

In this paper we analyze the power of various indicators to predict growth rates of aggregate production using real-time data. In addition, we assess their ability to predict turning points of the economy. We consider four groups of indicators: survey data, composite indicators, real economic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010273164

Can Turkish recessions be predicted?

Pagan, Adrian - 2010

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010273649

The default risk of firms examined with Smooth Support Vector Machines;

Härdle, Wolfgang Karl; Lee, Yuh-Jye; Schäfer, Dorothea; … - 2007

In the era of Basel II a powerful tool for bankruptcy prognosis is vital for banks. The tool must be precise but also easily adaptable to the bank's objections regarding the relation of false acceptances (Type I error) and false rejections (Type II error). We explore the suitability of Smooth...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274162