In this study, we show that changes in profitability predict a firm's stock returns and future profitability. We construct three horizon-based profitability changes, including short-, medium-, and long-term changes. We find that the predictive information for short-term changes in profitability...

We provide evidence that agents have slow moving beliefs about stock market volatility. This is supported in survey data and is also reflected in firm level option prices. We embed these expectations into an asset pricing model and show that we jointly explain the following stylized facts (some...

Investors' return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents' mental models - their subjective understanding - of the stock market, drawing on surveys with the US general...

Investors' return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents' mental models - their subjective understanding - of the stock market, drawing on surveys with the US general...