Having observed a cluster of jumps in the discrete prices of a financial asset, we study and quantify the probability that the cluster is going to produce further jumps.Modeling the jump arrival times with an exponential Hawkes process, we provide some bounds for the future stochastic jump...

Having observed a cluster of jumps produced by an exponential Hawkes process, we study and quantify the residual length of the cluster. We then formalize the stochastic increasingness property of the durations between two consecutive jumps, which strengthens their positive correlation. Finally...

Parameter shrinkage is known to reduce fitting and prediction errors in linear models. When the variables are dummies for age, period, etc. shrinkage is more commonly applied to differences between adjacent parameters, perhaps by fitting cubic splines or piecewise-linear curves (linear splines)...

The correlations among assets returns is one of the key components in the construction of a diversified portfolio. It has been observed though that in time of great distress, when a drop in financial markets occurs, correlations tend to increase. As a consequence, the diversification effect is...

The well-known subprime mortgage crisis, which began to manifest in early 2007, since when the effects of the speculative bubble begin to become evident from the increase in default rates in residential mortgages, has triggered a global crisis that has pushed various legislations over time to...

We consider an extension of the variance-gamma process implying that the linear drift rate of the process can switch suddenly by a jump. The value of jump is modeled by the multidimensional distribution, the jump time is simulated by the exponential distribution. Together with the simplest...

We propose a novel multivariate GARCH model that incorporates realized measures for the variance matrix of returns. The key novelty is the joint formulation of a multivariate dynamic model for outer-products of returns, realized variances and realized covariances. The updating of the variance...

The three most popular univariate conditional volatility models are the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model of Engle (1982) and Bollerslev (1986), the GJR (or threshold GARCH) model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle (1992), and the exponential GARCH (or...

The three most popular univariate conditional volatility models are the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model of Engle (1982) and Bollerslev (1986), the GJR (or threshold GARCH) model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle (1992), and the exponential GARCH (or...