Rationality of early release data is typically tested using linear regressions. Thus, failure to reject the null does not rule out the possibility of nonlinear dependence. This paper proposes two tests that have power against generic nonlinear alternatives. A Monte Carlo study shows that the...

This paper investigates empirically the role of the commodity price super cycle in explaining real activity in developed and emerging economies. The commodity price super cycle is defined as a common permanent component in real commodity prices. Estimates using quarterly and annual data from...

There is much ongoing debate on the merits of capital controls as effective policy instruments. The differing perspectives are due in part to a lack of empirical studies that look at the intensive margin of controls, which in turn has prevented a quantitative assessment of optimal capital...

Fluctuations in commodity prices are an important driver of business cycles in small emerging market economies (EMEs). We document how these fluctuations correlate strongly with the business cycle in EMEs. We then embed a commodity sector into a multi-country EMEs' business cycle model where...

Recent research on macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging economies has focused in two leading approaches: introducing a stochastic productivity trend, in addition to temporary productivity shocks; or allowing for foreign interest rate shocks coupled with financial frictions. This paper compares...