This paper explores differences in the impact of equally large positive and negative surprise return shocks in the aggregate U.S. stock market on: (1) the volatility predictions of asymmetric time-series models, (2) implied volatility, and (3) realized volatility. Following large negative...

This paper estimates how the shape of the implied volatility smile and the size of the variance risk premium relate to parameters of GARCH-type time-series models measuring how conditional volatility responds to return shocks. Markets in which return shocks lead to large increases in conditional...

Options researchers have argued that by averaging together implied standard deviations, or ISDs, calculated from several options with the same expiry but different strikes, the noise in individual ISDs can be reduced, yielding a better measure of the market's volatility expectation. Various...

By Jensen's inequality, a model's forecasts of the variance and standard deviation of returns cannot both be unbiased. This study explores the bias in GARCH type model forecasts of the standard deviation of returns, which we argue is the more appropriate volatility measure for most financial...

The forecasting ability of the most popular volatility forecasting models is examined and an alternative model developed. Existing models are compared in terms of four attributes: (1) the relative weighting of recent versus older observations, (2) the estimation criterion, (3) the trade‐off in...

Prior studies indicate that institutional investors are informed, in the sense that their trades predict price changes. In this study we show that return predictive ability of institutions arises (after controlling for size, book-to-market, and momentum) mainly from institutional sales of...

We confirm prior evidence that bonds on average are offered at prices below their immediate post-offer secondary market prices. However, in cases where banks lead-manage their own bond offerings the underpricing is significantly less as compared to other non-self-marketed offerings. These...