Wealth inequality has become a heated political issue. Politicians claim that wealth concentration is rising and that people at the top are gaining at other people's expense. In this study, I examine problems with the measurement of wealth and discuss whether wealth inequality is an issue that...

This paper studies time variation in expected excess bond returns. We run regressions of annual excess returns on forward rates. We find that a single factor predicts 1-year excess returns on 1-5 year maturity bonds with an R2 up to 43%. The single factor is a tent-shaped linear function of...

We measure monetary policy shocks as changes in the Fed funds target rate that surprise bond markets in daily data. These shock series avoid the omitted variable, time-varying parameter, and orthogonalization problem of monthly VARs, and do not impose the expectations hypothesis. We find...

Exchange rates depreciate by the difference between the domestic and foreign marginal utility growths. Exchange rates vary a lot , as much as 10% per year. However, equity premia imply that marginal utility growths vary much more, by at least 50% per year. This means that marginal utility...

The poor performance of consumption-based asset pricing models relative to traditional portfolio-based asset pricing models is one of the great disappointments of the empirical asset pricing literature. We show that the external habit-formation model economy of Campbell and Cochrane (1999) can...

It is often useful to price assets and other random payoffs by reference to other observed prices rather than construct full-fledged economic asset pricing models. This approach breaks down if one cannot find a perfect replicating portfolio. We impose weak economic restrictions to derive...

We present a consumption-based model that explains the procyclical variation of stock prices, the long-horizon predictability of excess stock returns, and the countercyclical variation of stock market volatility. Our model has an i.i.d. consumption growth driving process, and adds a slow-moving...

In this paper we argue that financial data are a useful proving ground for macroeconomic models, and we explore the channels that link asset market data to such models. We use Hansen and Jagannathan's bounds on the mean and standard deviation of discount factors to survey several asset pricing...

We construct an affine model that incorporates bond risk premia. By understanding risk premia, we are able to use a lot of information from well-measured risk-neutral dynamics to characterize real expectations. We use the model to decompose the yield curve into expected interest rate and risk...

I survey the statistical evidence on average stock returns, and the economic theories that try to explain average stock returns. The statistical evidence suggests a period of low returns, followed by a slow reversion to a high long-term average return. However that evidence is quite uncertain....