This paper describes asset price and return disturbances as result of relations between transactions and multiple kinds of expectations. We show that disturbances of expectations can cause fluctuations of trade volume, price and return. We model price disturbances for transactions made under all...

This paper describes expectations and Buy-Sell transactions of assets as ground for modeling trading volume and price fluctuations. We study simple model of mutual relations between transactions and expectations and derive economic equations that describe disturbances of asset prices, trading...

We investigate whether frictions in US financial markets amplify the international propagation of US financial shocks. The dynamics of the US economy is modeled jointly with global macroeconomic and financial variables using a threshold vector autoregression that allows us to capture...

This paper analyses two types of models: 1. Those based on assumptions of monetary and financial market equilibrium disturbance in line with mainstream thinking that there is self-regulating market, the units would have rational expectations, and the crisis would be a temporary phenomenon caused...

This paper studies the question of the economic scale of financial institutions. We show that banks actively smooth book equity by adjusting payouts to achieve a desired trajectory of book equity. The countercyclical nature of net payouts of financial institutions leads to procyclical book...

This paper presents a quantitative model of financial transactions between economic agents on economic space. Risk ratings of economic agents play role of their coordinates. Aggregate amounts of agent's financial variables at point x define macro financial variables as functions of time and...

This paper describes evolution of economic and financial transactions between agents as ground for modelling fluctuations of economic and financial variables. We use risk ratings x of agents as their coordinates x on economic space. Transactions between agents define evolution of their economic...

In this paper, a continuous-time, structural model of a dealer-bank is presented to derive fair value equations for credit-risky financial products that are not perfectly hedged. The impact these contracts have on the dealer-bank's earnings volatility, and consequently, their solvency and...

Investors typically measure an asset’s potential to diversify a portfolio by its correlations with the portfolio’s other assets, but correlation is useful only if it provides a good estimate of how an asset’s returns co-occur cumulatively with the other asset returns over the investor’s...