) to incorporate labor market hysteresis. This extension captures the idea that long and deep recessions (expansions) cause … financial crisis, compared to estimates without hysteresis. The smaller output gaps partly explain the absence of persistent …, hysteresis is expected to result in a structural improvement in growth and employment …

produce accurate forecast based on a description of history patterns in crude oil prices …

predictability, popular predictors from the literature fail to outperform the simple historical average benchmark forecast in out … model restrictions, forecast combination, diffusion indices, and regime shifts—improve forecasting performance by addressing …

-based and theory-based risk aversion indicators have poor predictive performance for future REA and risk aversion proxy based on …