In this paper, we assess whether key relations between US interest rates have been stable over time. This is done by estimating trivariate hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR models with stochastic volatility for the three-month Treasury bill rate, the slope of the Treasury yield curve...

A pénzügyi rendszerkockázat legfontosabb formája a modern pénzügyi hálózatokban bekövetkező fertőzések veszélye. A cikkben egy olyan bankrendszert vizsgálunk, ahol homogének a bankok (mérlegfőösszegük és preferenciájuk azonos) és egymás eszközeit tulajdonolják. Ezen...

The most fundamental form of systemic risk in modern financial networks is contagion. In this article we describe a homogeneous banking system (banks with identical preferences and the same size of total assets) with interconnectedness: banks own shares in each others' assets. Using these...

In this paper, we analysed the heavy-tailed behaviour in the dynamics of housing-price returns in the United States. We investigated the sources of heavy tails by estimating autoregressive models in which innovations can be subject to GARCH effects and/or non-Gaussianity. Using monthly data from...

In this paper, we analyse Okun's law - a relation between the change in the unemployment rate and GDP growth - using data from Australia, the euro area, the United Kingdom and the United States. More specifically, we assess the relevance of non-Gaussianity when modelling the relation. This is...

Arbetstagarorganisationernas förväntningar på lönetillväxten ligger systematiskt högre än arbetsgivarorganisationernas i den så kallade Prospera-enkäten. I denna artikel analyseras dessa skillnader ekonometriskt. Genom att beakta respondenternas förväntningar rörande inflation och...