We show that log-dividends (d) and log-prices (p) are cointegrated, but, instead of de facto assuming the stationarity of the classical log dividend–price ratio, we allow the data to reveal the cointegration vector between d and p. We define the modified dividend–price ratio (mdp), as the...

Taking into account expected return characteristics like firm size and book-to-market in the selection of winners and losers helps to ex ante separate stocks with momentum from those that exhibit reversal in international equity markets. A strategy that buys small value winners and sells large...

This paper explores the determinants of U.S. stock-bond correlations estimated at various frequencies. For this purpose, the two-component DCC-MIDAS model of correlation Colacito, Engle & Ghysels (2011) is used and extended to incorporate a third correlation frequency component. Subsequently,...

Do firms conducting reverse splits underperform or overperform in the long run? To resolve this question we investigate the long-term returns following more than 5,000 reverse splits conducted in 24 developed equity markets between the years 1990 and 2016. Using the calendar-time portfolio...

Ability to estimate an individual security returns is very important and needed by investors. Therefore the presence of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) which can be used to estimate the return of a security is considered very important in the field of finance. However, Fama and French showed...

We extract cycles from the term spread and study their role for predicting the equity premium using linear models. When properly extracted, the trend of the term spread is a strong and robust out-of-sample equity premium predictor, both from a statistical and an economic point of view. It...

A predictable pattern of stock market return is the violation of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). It is well studied and evident in financial literature that stock markets around the world have predictable patterns e.g. calendar effect, behavioural effect, and Religious festival effect....

This paper examines factors that affect the profitability of momentum returns for the US, the UK, Japan, and Germany, for the period 1998-2018. More specifically, the paper examines the impact of factors that have been largely neglected in the relevant literature, such as energy price changes...

We investigate the impact of China's economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the time series variation of Chinese stock market expected returns. Using the news based measure in Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016), we find that EPU predicts negatively future stock market return at various horizons. This...

This study explores the cross-sectional integration of stock and corporate bond markets by comparing a firm's expected stock return, as implied by corporate bond spreads, to its realized stock return. We compute expected corporate bond returns by correcting credit spreads for expected losses due...