This paper studies the predictability of S&P500 returns using short term risk premia as a conditioning variable. We construct dividend prices using futures data and identify short term risk premia by projecting excess returns of dividend claims on their lagged prices. Regression results for...

We structurally estimate a model in which agents' information processing biases can cause predictability in firms' asset returns and investment inefficiencies. We generalize the neoclassical investment model by allowing for two biases -- overconfidence and over-extrapolation of trends -- that...

I present evidence that large individual income changes can help explaining the size and value premium in a cross-section of portfolio returns. I develop a tail risk measure, the Idiosyncratic Income Risk Factor and estimate it on US income data. The results show that the extreme income shocks...

We econometrically estimate and test a consumption-based asset pricing model with stochastic internal habit. The model departs from existing deterministic internal habit models by introducing shocks to the coefficients in the distributed lag specification of consumption habit and consequently an...

We study asset-pricing implications of innovation in a general-equilibrium overlapping- generations economy. Innovation increases the competitive pressure on existing firms and workers, reducing the profits of existing firms and eroding the human capital of older workers. Due to the lack of...

Prior research has documented the role of information uncertainty in the cross-sectional variation in stock returns. Miller (1977) hypothesizes that if information uncertainty is caused by differences of opinion, prices will reflect only the positive beliefs due to short-sale constraints. These...

The traditional active vs passive debate has been shaken up by the emergence of “smart beta” strategies. As the population of these products has exploded, the quest to differentiate among them has focused on portfolio construction techniques rather than what actually matters, namely...

We relate Schumpeter's notion of creative destruction to asset pricing, thereby offering a novel explanation of size and value premia. We argue that small-value firms must offer higher expected returns to compensate for the risk posed by serendipitous invention activity, whereas large-growth...

We relate Schumpeter's notion of creative destruction to asset pricing, thereby offering a novel explanation of size and value premia. We argue that small-value firms must offer higher expected returns to compensate for the risk posed by serendipitous invention activity, whereas large-growth...