I provide evidence that portfolio equity inflows can have expansionary effects on GDP and inflation if not offset by monetary policy. I use a shift-share instrument to estimate equity inflows based on plausibly exogenous timing of inflows into mutual funds with heterogeneous country portfolios....

We investigate the presence of international business cycles in macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, investment) using a panel of 60 countries over the period 1961 - 2014. The paper presents a Bayesian stochastic factor selection approach for dynamic factor models with predetermined...

We analyze business cycle convergence in the EU by focusing on the decoupling vs. convergence hypothesis for central, eastern and south eastern Europe (CESEE). In a nutshell, we fnd that business cycles in CESEE have decoupled considerably from the euro area (EA) during the financial crisis in...

We analyze whether financial integration between countries leads to converging or diverging business cycles using a dynamic spatial model. Our model allows for contemporaneous spillovers of shocks to GDP growth between countries that are financially integrated and delivers a scalar measure of...

The U.S. financial crisis of 2007-08 had detrimental and lasting effects on the economies of other nations, reinforcing the leading role played by the United States in the global economy. The authors assess this role by determining whether U.S. output growth informs business cycle turning points...

This paper investigates the time-varying correlation between the EU12-wide business cycle and the initial EU12 member-countries based on Scalar-BEKK and multivariate Riskmetrics model frameworks for the period 1980-2012. The paper provides evidence that changes in the business cycle...

This paper investigates business cycles in Asia. Business cycles in developing small, open countries are different from those in developed small countries. Most interesting characteristics in developing countries are excessive consumption volatilities and strong countercyclical net export. Asia...

This work analyses the effects of the slowdown that has hit Germany since 2018 on the Italian economy using data from Banca d’Italia’s Survey of Inflation and Growth Expectations. First, we briefly argue that these two economies are highly interconnected and describe the slowdown that has...

In this paper, we highlight the role of global value chains in the synchronization of economic activity between countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the euro area. We start off by demonstrating that the degree of synchronization of the business cycles of CEE countries and their main...