We constructed a new index of global uncertainty using the first principal component of the stock market volatility for the largest 15 economies. We evaluate the impact of global uncertainty on the global economy using the new global database from Global Economic Indicators (DGEI), Federal...

Kilian and Park (IER 50 (2009), 1267-287) find shocks to oil supply are relatively unimportant to understanding changes in U.S. stock returns. We examine the impact of both U.S. and non-U.S. oil supply shocks on U.S. stock returns in light of the unprecedented expansion in U.S. oil production...

The value of the US dollar is of major importance to the world economy. Global liquidity has grown sharply in recent years with growing importance of China's money supply to global liquidity. We develop out-of-sample forecasts of the US dollar exchange rate value using US and non-US global data...

We decompose global stock market volatility shocks into financial originated shocks and non-financial originated shocks. Global stock market volatility shocks arising from financial sources reduce substantially more global outputs and inflation than non-financial sources shocks. Financial stock...

This paper investigates the influence of liquidity shocks in China on the U.S. economy over 1996-2012. The influence on the U.S. is through China’s influence on demand for imports, particularly that of commodities. In all models estimated a positive innovation in China’s liquidity is...

This paper presents estimates of the relationship between the share of income accruing to the middle class and gross domestic product per capita of economies from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The increase in gross domestic product per capita that these economies experienced during...

This paper presents estimates of the effects that terms of trade volatility has on growth of real gross domestic product per capita. Based on five-year non-overlapping panel data comprising 175 countries during 1980-2010, the paper finds that: (i) in model specifications that do not include...