We apply recently developed early warning indicators systems to a cross-section of emerging markets. We find that, with little or no modification, models designed to predict asset price booms/busts in advanced countries may be useful for emerging markets. The concept of monitoring a set of asset...

We review some aspects of financial dollarization in Russia, applying the main relevant theories to analyse the dynamics of several dollarization indicators. An econometric model of the short-run dynamics of deposit and loan dollarization is estimated for the last decade. We find that ruble...

We estimate money demand models for certain monetary aggregates across different institutional sectors (a novelty for the Russian case). Our results comprise a collection of money demand equations that include different combinations of explanatory variables. Comparing the validity of these...

In the spirit of Borio et al. (2014) we present a model that incorporates information contained in diverse variables when estimating sustainable output growth. For this purpose, we specify a state-space model representing a multivariate HP-filter that links cyclical fluctuation of GDP with...

We present a model that incorporates the information contained in diverse variables when estimating sustainable output growth. For this purpose, we specify a state-space model representing a multivariate HP filter that links cyclical fluctuation in GDP with several indicators of macroeconomic...

We apply an econometric approach developed specifically to address the ‘curse of dimensionality’ in Russian data and estimate a Bayesian vector autoregression model comprising 14 major domestic real, price and monetary macroeconomic indicators as well as external sector variables. We conduct...

The paper investigates to what extent some basic tools of the ECBs monetary analysis can be useful for other central banks given their specific institutional, economic and financial environment. We take the case of the Bank of Russia in order to show how to adjust methods and techniques of...

This article presents three alternative models for decomposing loan developments into components associated with changes in loan demand and supply fundamentals. Two models are based on macro data (error correction model and structural vector autoregression with sign restrictions) and one is...

Purpose This paper aims to discuss the money creation mechanisms in emerging markets with special focus on external transactions and outlines the implications for monetary policy and financial stability issues. Design/methodology/approach To make the argument, the authors analyze a historical...