This paper shows that expected uncertainty should be included as a key determinant in the derivation of the natural probability distribution of assets because it contains information that goes beyond information contained in state prices. I redefine the contingent state prices derived in the...

In this paper, I argue that we can use consumer and investor perceptions to forecast short-term fluctuations in asset prices. Using tweets scraped from Twitter between 2009 and 2019, I perform textual analysis to construct daily sentiment indices. While other scholars have relied on third-party...

I introduce a model to estimate the risk-neutral density. Current estimation techniques use a single mathematical model to interpolate option prices on two option dimensions: strike price and time-to maturity (TTM). I propose to use B-splines with at-the-money knots for the strike price...

In this paper, I construct an optimal portfolio by minimizing the expected tail loss (ETL) derived from the forward-looking natural distribution of the Recovery Theorem (RT). The RT is one of the first successful attempts at deriving an unparameterized natural distribution of future asset...