Assessing and pricing country risk poses a considerable challenge to tactical asset allocation across national equity markets. This research examines the relationship between the country composite risk (together with its component risks related to: sovereign credit, currency, banking sector,...

We develop a multivariate credit risk model for the term structures of sovereign and bank credit default swaps. First, we separate the probability of joint defaults of large Eurozone sovereigns (systemic risk) from that of sovereign-specific defaults (country risk). Then, we quantify individual...

This paper proposes a model for credit default swap (CDS) spreads under heterogeneous expectations to explain the escalation in sovereign European CDS spreads and the widening variations across European sovereigns following the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In our model, investors believe that...

I study the term structure of credit default swap spreads to understand the dynamics of global and country-specific risk factors in explaining the time-variation in sovereign credit risk. The analysis suggests that the shape of the term structure conveys significant information on the relative...

This paper develops an international asset-pricing model with defaultable firms and governments that demonstrates how sovereign credit risk in Europe affects US equity market prices. The risk of a sovereign debt crisis is a threat to economic growth that reduces the value of international...

We study the determinants of sovereign credit risk in the euro area in a time period that includes the financial and sovereign debt crisis, as well as the unconventional monetary policy adopted by the European Central Bank. First, we detect the presence of commonality in sovereign credit spreads...

Credit Default Swaps can be used to lower capital requirements of dealer banks who enter into uncollateralized derivatives positions with sovereigns. We show in a model that the regulatory incentive to obtain capital relief makes CDS contracts valuable to dealer banks and empirically that,...

We study how shifting global macroeconomic conditions affect sovereign bond prices. Bondholders earn premia for two sources of systematic risk: exposure to low-frequency changes in the state of the economy, as captured by expected macroeconomic growth and volatility, and exposure to...

In this paper, we develop a non-parametric matching method to estimate the over or under valuation of sovereign risk in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) between 2004 and 2007. CEECs are matched to other countries that are very similar with regards to macroeconomic fundamentals....

Realized stock market returns are volatile and poor reflections of economic growth and investor expectations in China. In this paper, we estimate simultaneously the implied long run growth rate and cost of equity capital for listed Chinese firms over the period 2004-2012. We find that the...