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In this paper we investigate the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic activity using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with heterogenous agents and a stylized banking sector. We show that frictions in credit supply amplify the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009761866
This paper develops and estimates the quantity based Markov-switching(MS) monetary policy rule for China. The MS … regression results show that China's monetary policy rule does exist regime changes, and the best fit is with a version that … in monetary shock's variance and steady-state of M2 growth rate. Based on the Bayesian estimation of MS-DSGE model, I …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012863051
In terms of regulatory and economic capital, credit risk is the most significant risk faced by banks. We implement a … credit risk model - based on publicly available information . with the aim of developing a tool to monitor credit risk in a … sample of large and complex banking groups (LCBGs) in the EU. The results indicate varying credit risk profiles across these …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003831692
real activity to a financial uncertainty shock during and in the aftermath of the great recession. We replicate this … estimated framework to quantify the output loss due to the large uncertainty shock that materialized in 2008Q3. We find such a … shock to be able to explain about 60% of the output loss in the 2008-2014 period. The same estimated model unveils the role …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012495676
that such disturbances are important drivers of output fluctuations in both economies, we find the shock responses of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011897983
What are the economic implications of financial and uncertainty shocks? We show that financial shocks cause a decline in output and goods prices, while uncertainty shocks cause a decline in output and an increase in goods prices. In response to uncertainty shocks, firms increase their markups,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013373603
recessionary effects of uncertainty and can result in aggregate dynamics consistent with a supply-side shock. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014287049
We show that TFP reacts counter-cyclically to macroeconomic shocks, which we identify by imposing sign restrictions. Counterfactual simulations, based on a New Keynesian DSGE model, show that firms manage to employ labor more efficiently during downturns, which leads to a muted drop in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010489298
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