This paper employs an approximation that makes a nonlinear term structure model extremely tractable for analysis of an economy operating near the zero lower bound for interest rates. We show that such a model offers an excellent description of the data compared to the benchmark model and can be...

We extract the market's expectations about the ECB's negative interest rate policy from the euro area's yield curve and study its impact on the yield curve. To capture the rich dynamics taking place at the short end of the yield curve, we introduce two policy indicators that summarise the...

We evaluate the implications of the ECB's negative interest rate policy (NIRP) on the yield curve. To capture various shapes of the short end of the yield curve induced by the NIRP, we introduce two policy indicators, which summarize the immediate and longer-horizon future monetary policy...

This paper employs an approximation that makes a nonlinear term structure model extremely tractable for analysis of an economy operating near the zero lower bound for interest rates. We show that such a model offers an excellent description of the data compared to the benchmark model and can be...

The sharp drop and subsequent rebound in global stock markets in the current pandemic focuses attention on changes in investors' risk attitudes. A new COVID-19 risk attitude (CRA) index for 61 markets, based on internet searches in Google and Baidu, does a good job at capturing investors'...

We evaluate the implications of the ECB's negative interest rate policy (NIRP) on the yield curve. To capture various shapes of the short end of the yield curve induced by the NIRP, we introduce two policy indicators, which summarize the immediate and longer-horizon future monetary policy...

This paper employs an approximation that makes a nonlinear term structure model extremely tractable for analysis of an economy operating near the zero lower bound for interest rates. We show that such a model offers an excellent description of the data compared to the benchmark model and can be...

We develop a novel trade sentiment index (TSI) based on textual analysis and machine learning applied on a big data pool that assesses the positive or negative tone of the Chinese media. We find the TSI to contribute around 10% of model capacity to explain the stock price variability of 60...

Financial markets can support the transition to a more sustainable and fairer economy by influencing firms’ funding costs. To explore this mechanism, we study the extent to which investors respond to signals about the environmental or social benefits stemming from given projects or firms. We...

The term structure of inflation forecasts disagreement in the US can be summarized by two components: disagreement about the trend inflation, and disagreement about the cyclical inflation. While the former has identical impacts on forecasts disagreement across forecasting horizons, the latter...