Recently Chairman Greenspan (2003 and 2004) has discussed a risk management approach to the implementation of monetary policy. This paper explores the economic environment of the 1990s and the policy dilemmas the Fed faced given the stock boom from the mid to late 1990s to after the bust in...

In 1994 the Federal Reserve System moved to a more transparent reporting of monetary policy. In this paper we first discuss the various sources of uncertainty that play an essential role in the formulation and conduct of monetary policy and evaluate the degree of uncertainty faced by monetary...

Economists have long conjectured that movements in stock prices may involve speculative components. This bubble, as it is usually referred to, is defined as the difference between the market value of a security and its fundamental value. Although there are several important theoretical issues...

This paper argues that the global monetary system has exhibited significant instability since the collapse of the Bretton Woods regime in 1971. The recent challenge for economists and policy makers is the creation of a global monetary system that offers greater exchange rate stability without...

Numerous studies have estimated U.S. stock market returns measured by various indexes such as the Samp;P 500 Index over certain periods. The purpose of this paper is twofold: first we calculate, under certain scenarios, the final total accumulation of a representative individual who invests a...

The phenomenal growth of individual retirement accounts in the U.S., and globally, challenges both individuals and their advisors to rationally manage these investments. The two essential differences between an individual retirement account and an institutional portfolio are the length of the...

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) - an extension of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Canada and USA to include Mexico - went into effect on January 1, 1994, primarily as an agreement to eliminate restrictions on trade and investment over the course of twelve years. NAFTA is a...

The purpose of this paper is to develop certain relatively recent mathematical discoveries known generally as stochastic calculus, or more specifically as Ito's Calculus and to also illustrate their application in the pricing of options. The mathematical methods of stochastic calculus are...

Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods Global International System in 1971, the world economy has experienced significant currency volatility. The major economies of the world have addressed such volatility differently. The EU has chosen to follow a monetary union and introduced successfully a...

The celebrated Taylor Rule methodology has established that the decisions made by the Federal Open Market Committee concerning possible changes in short term interest rates reflected in Fed Funds are influenced by deviations from a desired level of inflation and from potential output. The Taylor...