This paper contributes to a deeper understanding of macroeconomic outcomes to financial market disturbances and the central bank’s role in financial stability, by using Bayesian VAR (BVAR) models. We document that a shock that increases credit to non-financial sector leads to a persistent...

The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 caused major economic disturbances in the oil market. In this paper we consider five variables describing the microeconomics of supply of, and demand for oil and evaluate their importance before, during and after the global financial crisis. We consider...

In this paper we consider two new independent variables as inputs to the Taylor Rule. These are the equity and housing momentum variables and are introduced to investigate the potential usefulness of these two variables in guiding the Fed to lean against potential bubbles. Such effectiveness...

This paper considers the directional predictability of daily returns for both gold and silver. These two metals have had a long history behaving sometimes as complements and other times as substitutes. We use daily data from June of 2008 through February of 2015. The last two years were removed...

The Financial Crisis of 2007-09 caused the U.S. economy to experience a relatively long recession from December 2007 to June 2009. Both the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve undertook expansive fiscal and monetary policies to minimize both the severity and length of the recession. Most...

This chapter introduces the reader to definitions and key properties of stochastic processes that are important in finance. The discussion starts from the description of Brownian motion that describes the idea of a continuous random walk and proceeds to Ito processes that incorporate both trend...

The standard hypothesis concerning the behavior of asset returns states that they follow a random walk in discrete time or a Brownian motion in continuous time. The Brownian motion process is characterized by a quantity, called the Hurst exponent, which is related to some fractal aspects of the...

This paper reviews both theoretical and empirical issues regarding inflation and evaluates the contribution of Kyrtsou and Labys. Analytically it is very difficult to propose a general theory of inflation because as economies evolve over time both new causes of inflation emerge and the...

This paper contributes to a fuller understanding of macroeconomic outcomes to financial market disturbances and the central bank’s role in financial stability. Our two major contributions are conceptual and econometric. Conceptually, we introduce phases of the business cycle and...

A speculative bubble is usually defined as the difference between the market value of a security and its fundamental value. Although there are several important theoretical issues surrounding the topic of asset bubbles, the existence of bubbles is inherently an empirical issue that has not been...