This paper provides bounds on the errors in coverage probabilities of maximum likelihood-based, percentile-t, parametric bootstrap confidence intervals for Markov time series processes. These bounds show that the parametric bootstrap for Markov time series provides higher-order improvements...

Duration dependent Markov-switching VAR (DDMS-VAR) models are time series models with data generating process consisting in a mixture of two VAR processes. The switching between the two VAR processes is governed by a two state Markov chain with transition probabilities that depend on how long...

This paper studies computationally and theoretically attractive estimators referred here as to the Laplace type estimators (LTE). The LTE include means and quantiles of Quasi-posterior distributions defined as transformations of general (non-likelihood-based) statistical criterion functions,...

This paper proposes a Differential-Independence Mixture Ensemble (DIME) sampler for the Bayesian estimation of macroeconomic models. It allows sampling from particularly challenging, high-dimensional black-box posterior distributions which may also be computationally expensive to evaluate. DIME...

This paper proposes a Differential-Independence Mixture Ensemble (DIME) sampler for the Bayesian estimation of macroeconomic models. It allows sampling from particularly challenging, high-dimensional black-box posterior distributions which may also be computationally expensive to evaluate. DIME...

We propose procedures for estimating the time-dependent transition matrices for the general class of finite nonhomogeneous continuous-time semi-Markov processes. We prove the existence and uniqueness of solutions for the system of Volterra integral equations defining the transition matrices,...

Important features of certain economic models may be revealed by studying positive eigenfunctions of appropriately chosen linear operators. Examples include long-run risk-return relationships in dynamic asset pricing models and components of marginal utility in external habit formation models....

We present a continuous-time maximum likelihood estimation methodology for credit rating transition probabilities, taking into account the presence of censored data. We perform rolling estimates of the transition matrices with exponential time weighting with varying horizons and discuss the...

In this paper, we review the most common specifications of discrete-time stochastic volatility (SV) models and illustrate the major principles of corresponding Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based statistical inference. We provide a hands-on ap proach which is easily implemented in empirical...

The detection of structural change and determination of lag lengths are long-standing issues in time series analysis. This paper demonstrates how these can be successfully married in a Bayesian analysis. By taking account of the inherent uncertainty about the lag length when deciding on the...