This paper examines the relative performance of some popular nonlinearity tests when applied to time series generated by Markov switching autoregressive models. The nonlinearity tests considered include RESET-type tests, the Keenan test, the Tsay test, the McLeod--Li test, the BDS test, the...

This paper constructs a model for the evolution of a risky security that is consistent with a set of observed call option prices. It explicitly treats the fact that only a discrete data set can be observed in practice. The framework is general and allows for state dependent volatility and jumps....

This discussion paper resulted in a publication in the <I>Siam Journal on Matrix Analysis and Applications (2011). Volume 32, issue 3, pages 665-684.<P> A sequence of real numbers (<I>x_n</I>) is Benford if the significands, i.e. the fractionparts in the floating-point representation of (<I>x_n</I>), are distributed...</i></i></p></i>

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to allocate marketing budgets in complex environments, where data are scarce and management judgment is available. In this research, marketing budgets are allocated, to maximize customer equity as a long-term profitability measure....

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present the use of Markov chain to predict the behaviour of Australian real estate investment trusts (REITs) that are more highly valued in the areas of environmental, social and governance (ESG). Design/methodology/approach – For the empirical...

Defaulting on a mortgage represents the ultimate consequence of past decisions to delay payment. While many modeling approaches are available to estimate the probability of default, most if not all require account‐level data. Further, past research has not attempted to estimate the probability...

Some past studies of credit risk ratings migration have found trend reversals and evidence that the data‐generating process is nonstationary. Using a sample of Farm Credit System mortgages, we find no compelling statistical evidence of either phenomenon. We do find evidence that our sample of...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to consider a discrete‐time, Markov, regime‐switching, affine term‐structure model for valuing bonds and other interest rate securities. The proposed model incorporates the impact of structural changes in (macro)‐economic conditions on...

This study uses the Markov chain and agency theory to demonstrate a link between a salesperson's perceived attributes with customer retention and both optimal effort and commission, using a relational perspective. The purpose is to show sales managers that, with a customer survey, they can use...