Although financial literature presents ambiguous evidence about the predicting value of fundamental and technical variables in stock markets, we find that evolving trading models based on fundamental variables substantially reduce the risk of investing in stocks. This reduction is so generous...

Researchers have traditionally assumed that theportfolio allocation patterns of the wealthy are simply a scaled-up version ofthe average household's portfolio; however, data on the wealthy, particularlythe 1962-63 Survey of Financial Characteristics of the Consumers and the 1983Survey of...

Do bond investors demand credit quality or liquidity? The answer is both, but at different times and for different reasons. Using data on the Euro-area government bond market, which features a unique negative correlation between credit quality and liquidity across countries, we show that the...

Major events often trigger abrupt changes in stock prices and volatility. We study the implications of jumps in prices and volatility on investment strategies. Using the event-risk framework of Duffie, Pan, and Singleton (2000), we provide analytical solutions to the optimal portfolio problem....

This paper investigates how the nature of risk changes as investment horizon lengthens, and what it means for investors. Accumulated wealth is analyzed in terms of four drivers: expected return, cash flow innovations, discount rate innovations, and reinvestment rates. This perspective highlights...

Although most empirical studies conclude that uncertainty delays firms' investments based on real options theory, empirical evidence regarding the impact of uncertainty on innovation is mixed. This study examines the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) on corporate research and development (R&D)...

This textbook provides a first-hand account of impact of volatility on valuations. It focuses on valuation of the investment with fair, practical and insightful explanations. Volatility in markets can form the foundation of fair value. A marginal change in volatility has a significant impact on...

Using a news-based index of geopolitical risk (GPR), we document a strong negative relationship between firm-level corporate investment and GPR. When the GPR index doubles, investment rate in the next quarter declines by 14% of its sample mean. The effect is more pronounced for firms with more...

We examine the interplay between event risk, transaction costs and predictability on the dynamic asset allocation of an investor with discrete trading opportunities. The model is calibrated to the U.S. stock market and a Gauss-Hermite quadrature approach is used to solve the investor's dynamic...