This paper reviews the progress that the science of monetary policy has made over recent decades. This progress has significantly expanded the degree to which the practice of monetary policy reflects the application of a core set of "scientific" principles. However, there remains, and will...

How well did the federal funds futures market anticipate recent monetary policy actions? The authors examine the predictive content of fed funds futures rates, which provide the Federal Open Market Committee with a clear reading of market expectations for policy, in the context of 1994 policy...

The yield curve has a wealth of information about future interest rates and economic conditions. Users should exercise caution, though, as many of the relationships that hold between the behavior of the curve and what it foretells depend on the monetary regime in place at the time the curve is...