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Maximising expected value is the classic doctrine in choice theory under empirical uncertainty, and a prominent … in ethics and aggregation theory under uncertainty. We analyse the spectrum of expectational theories, showing that they … reach diverging evaluations, use different modes of reasoning, take different attitudes to normative risk as well as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861551
In this paper we present a dynamic discrete-time model that allows to investigate the impact of risk-aversion in an …-time limit of our model with no uncertainty and no risk-aversion. Focusing on the continuous-time limit of the infinite horizon … inversely related to the degrees of uncertainty and risk-aversion. However, the effect of uncertainty and risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889402
Consider legal uncertainty as uncertainty about the legality of a specific action. In particular, suppose that the threshold of legality is uncertain. I show that this legal uncertainty raises welfare. Legal uncertainty changes deterrence in opposite directions. The probability of conviction...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013005652
Consider legal uncertainty as uncertainty about the legality of a specific action. In particular, suppose that the threshold of legality is uncertain. I show that this legal uncertainty raises welfare. Legal uncertainty changes deterrence in opposite directions. The probability of conviction...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012940344
Economic modeling assumes, for the most part, that agents are Bayesian, that is, that they entertain probabilistic beliefs, objective or subjective, regarding any event in question. We argue that the formation of such beliefs calls for a deeper examination and for explicit modeling. Models of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012725715
Inflation-targeting central banks have only imperfect knowledge about the effect of policy decisions on inflation. An important source of uncertainty is the relationship between inflation and unemployment. This paper studies the optimal monetary policy in the presence of uncertainty about the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014087550
This paper studies a dispersed information economy in which agents can exert costly attention to learn about an unknown aggregate state of the economy. Under certain conditions, attention and four measures of uncertainty are countercyclical: Agents pay more attention when they expect the economy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013297934
We present a model in which investors observe the same macroeconomic data but have varying levels of information about the parameters that determine the distribution of the expected returns on investment. During a crisis that increases macroeconomic uncertainty and reduces asset prices, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013132094
We present a model in which investors observe the same macroeconomic data but have varying levels of information about the parameters that determine the distribution of the expected returns on investment. During a crisis that increases macroeconomic uncertainty and reduces asset prices, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013132196
In this paper we perform a meta-analysis on empirical estimates of the impact between investment and uncertainty. Since the outcomes of primary studies are largely incomparable with respect to the magnitude of the effect, our analysis focuses on the direction and statistical significance of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349194