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We introduce learning in a Brock-Mirman environment and study the effect of risk generated by the planner's econometric … activity on optimal consumption and investment. Here, learning introduces two sources of risk about future payoffs: structural … decreases optimal consumption are provided. The effect depends on the strengths and directions of the two sources of risk, which …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014051128
Inflation-targeting central banks have only imperfect knowledge about the effect of policy decisions on inflation. An important source of uncertainty is the relationship between inflation and unemployment. This paper studies the optimal monetary policy in the presence of uncertainty about the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014087550
uncertainty into Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). Uncertainty is transformed into a risk-premium, damage-correction, region …. This risk premium quantifies what society would be willing to pay to insure against the uncertainty of the damages, and it … highly sensitive to the coefficient of relative risk aversion. Once the climate change damage function incorporates the risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011451668
We address the problem of choosing a portfolio of policies under "deep uncertainty." We introduce the idea of belief dominance as a way to derive a set of non-dominated portfolios and robust individual alternatives. Our approach departs from the tradition of providing a single recommended...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011504367
Using a long-panel dataset of Japanese firms that contains firm-level sales forecasts, we provide evidence on firm-level uncertainty and imperfect information over their life cycle. We find that firms make non-negligible and positively correlated forecast errors. However, they make more precise...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012258487
) and the General Theory (1936), as well as follow-ups in the post-Keynesian approaches and others dealing with "fundamental …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011948136
which, compared with the risk-adjusted cost of capital, correctly signals wealth creation. For choosing between two mutually … exclusive projects, we derive an incremental AROI and an incremental risk-adjusted cost of capital, by means of which two … unequal-risk projects can be correctly compared. Iterating the incremental procedure, we show that the AROI approach correctly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012973932
Entrepreneurs' exposure to economic uncertainty from regulation, monetary policy, and taxation is exacerbated by the inflexibility of capital asset commitments. Entrepreneurs adapt to uncertainty by reducing asset specificity. While the mainstream approach tends to focus on reduced aggregate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012950563
, and investment measures. We also document similar effects for aggregate equity issuance. Consistent with theory, we find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014350126
structure. Recently the theory has however started to merge real options theory with game theory to offer alternative … show that the more concentrated industries are not significantly affected. Irreversibility, as predicted by theory, has a … downward adjustment costs of capital. This seems in line with some of the recent developments proposed by the theory …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014060495