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In this work we present our findings of the so‐called CIR#, which is a modified version of the Cox, Ingersoll & Ross (CIR) model, turned into a forecasting tool for any term structure. The main feature of the CIR# model is its ability to cope with negative interest rates, cluster volatility...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227556
Under what conditions can the term structure of risk premia be downward sloping, as reported in a number of recent … empirical studies? I study fixed income and equity risk premium term structures and the long run risk in a continuous time Lucas …-Zin-Weil preferences. I derive closed form solutions for the term structures of the risk premia of finite maturity bonds, the equity market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012941694
VIX slope risk is approximately 2.5% annually, statistically significant and cannot be explained by other common factors …, such as the market excess return, size, book-to-market, momentum, liquidity, market volatility, and the variance risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013044719
model of default (Yildirim 2006), the Omega risk model of bankruptcy in risk analysis (Gerber, Shiu and Yang 2012), and a … diffusion risk model with surplus-dependent tax (Albrecher and Hipp 2007, Li, Tang and Zhou 2013) …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013072263
With model uncertainty characterized by a convex, possibly non-dominated set of probability measures, the investor minimizes the cost of hedging a path dependent contingent claim with given expected success ratio, in a discrete-time, semi-static market of stocks and options. Based on duality...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012972859
The traditional approach to bond portfolio immunization usually assumes that the possible future changes of the term structure of interest rates lie within a suitable parametric class of functions. The quantities of interest are the sensitivities of the portfolio value with respect to these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013403432
I provide evidence that risks in macroeconomic fundamentals contain valuable information about bond risk premia. I … extract factors from a set of quantile-based risk measures estimated for US macroeconomic variables and document that they … unemployment rate. In addition, factors provide information about bond risk premia variation that is largely unrelated to that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010478516
Restrictions on the risk-pricing in dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) can unleash the power of no-arbitrage by … econometric framework for estimation of affine Gaussian DTSMs under restrictions on risk prices, which addresses the issues of a … the US Treasury yield curve. The data strongly favor tight restrictions on risk pricing: only level risk is priced, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010491726
dynamics of the risk premia - features that are all present in the data. I use the model to assess how accurately the term …-varying risk premia make it very hard to accurately track changes in the expected path of real or nominal yields over horizons of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131069
risks significantly contribute to the variation of yields and risk premiums for nominal bonds. While overall bond risk … premiums are counter-cyclical, an increase in aggregate demand variance significantly lowers risk premiums. Macro risks also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012899126