We propose a mean-reverting stochastic process for the market beta. In a simulation study, the proposed model generates significantly more precise beta estimates than GARCH betas, betas conditioned on aggregate or firm-level variables, and rolling-regression betas, even when the true betas are...

We propose a mean-reverting stochastic process for the market beta. In a simulation study, the proposed model generates significantly more precise beta estimates than GARCH betas, betas conditioned on aggregate or firm-level variables, and rolling-regression betas, even when the true betas are...

Classifying mandatory 13F stockholding filings by manager type reveals that hedge fund strategies are mostly contrarian, while mutual fund strategies are largely trend following. The only institutional performers---the 2/3 of hedge fund managers that are contrarian---earn alpha of 2.4% per year....

Cross-sectional forecasts of conservative and optimistic biases in analyst earnings estimates predict a stock's future returns, especially for firms that are hard to value. Trading strategies--whether based on the component of analyst bias that is correlated with major return anomalies or the...

This paper finds significant price momentum in US corporate bonds. The analysis is based on 3.2 million monthly observations from 77,150 bonds from two transaction and three dealer-quote databases over the period from 1973 to 2008. Bond momentum profits are significant in the second half of the...

This paper documents significant momentum in a comprehensive sample of 81,491 US corporate bonds with both transaction and dealer-quote data from 1973 to 2011. Momentum is driven by non-investment grade (NIG) bonds. Momentum profits have increased over time along with the growth of this segment....

This paper documents a strong relationship between short-run reversals and stock illiquidity, even after controlling for trading volume. The largest reversals and the potential contrarian trading strategy profits occur in high turnover, low liquidity stocks, as the price pressures caused by...

This article proposes a trading-based explanation for the asymmetric effect in daily volatility of individual stock returns. Previous studies propose two major hypotheses for this phenomenon: leverage effect and time-varying expected returns. However, leverage has no impact on asymmetric...

This article develops a framework that applies to single securities to test whether asset pricing models can explain the size, value, and momentum anomalies. Stock level beta is allowed to vary with firm-level size and book-to-market as well as with macroeconomic variables. With constant beta,...