Empirical tests of reduced form models of default attribute a large fraction of observed credit spreads to compensation for jump-to-default risk. However, these models preclude a “contagion-risk” channel, where the aggregate corporate bond index reacts adversely to a credit event. In this...

I formulate a general model of fire sales in which multiple heterogeneous investors, each investing in multiple assets, become forced sellers due to exogenous price shocks. Simultaneously prices endogenously adjust based on the volume of forced sales. This induces strategic interaction between...

Inter-linkages between firms are a channel by which idiosyncratic shocks to one firm can affect the returns of linked counterparties. We extend a factor model of returns to allow for the transmission of idiosyncratic shocks between linked counterparties. We show that the structure of...

In classical contagion models, default systems are Markovian conditionally on the observation of their stochastic environment, with interacting intensities. This necessitates that the environment evolves autonomously and is not influenced by the history of the default events. We extend the...

Using detailed data of margin investors' leverage ratios and trading activities, we provide novel evidence for the effect of margin-induced trading on the cross-section of stock returns during the recent market turmoil in China. We first document the deleverge-induced sales. Aggregating this...

We propose a model to account for two stylized facts about sovereign yields in the Euro Area: their convergence after 2000 and subsequent divergence after 2008, and the contagion among yields of the Euro periphery after the financial crisis of 2007-2008.Two borrowing countries share a bailout...

This paper studies intertemporal asset pricing in network economies when distress shocks can propagate through the network, similarly to epidemic outbreaks. Two classes of equilibria exist. In the fi rst, idiosyncratic shocks are diversi fiable and do not affect investor asset valuations. The...

I present a model of fire sales incorporating multiple investors with overlapping asset holdings and heterogeneous leverage constraints. Negative price shocks force asset sales which in turn depress prices, triggering additional forced selling and price declines in a self-reinforcing negative...

We propose a unified model of limited market integration, asset-price determination, leveraging, and contagion. Investors and firms are located on a circle, and access to markets involves participation costs that increase with distance. Due to a complementarity between participation and leverage...