We propose an equilibrium model for defaultable bonds that are subject to contagion risk. Contagion arises because agents with "fragile beliefs'' are uncertain about the underlying economic state and its probability. Estimation on sovereign European credit default swaps (CDS) data shows that...

We consider the optimal portfolio problem of a power investor who wishes to allocate her wealth between several credit default swaps (CDSs) and a money market account. We model contagion risk among the reference entities in the portfolio using a reduced form Markovian model with interacting...

In classical contagion models, default systems are Markovian conditionally on the observation of their stochastic environment, with interacting intensities. This necessitates that the environment evolves autonomously and is not influenced by the history of the default events. We extend the...

In this paper I use a reduced-form, tree-based model to fit the term structure for the AAA-rated (German) and risky (Hungarian; spread 120-140 bp) bonds in the 2-month period immediately preceding Aug. 1998 Russian default. The term structure was optimized by the stochastic, derivatives-free...

Overlapping portfolios constitute a well-recognised source of risk, providing a channel for financial contagion induced by the market price impact of asset deleveraging. We introduce a novel method to assess the market price impact on a security-by-security basis from historical daily traded...

This paper proposes a new mutual exciting regime-switching model where crises can spread contagiously across countries. Each country has its own hidden stochastic process that determines whether it is in a normal or crisis regime. The mutual-excitation component allows interactions in the Markov...

We propose an equilibrium model for defaultable bonds that are subject to contagion risk. Contagion arises because agents with "fragile beliefs"' are uncertain about the underlying economic state and its probability. Estimation on sovereign European credit default swaps (CDS) data shows that...

We propose an explanation for default contagion based on a Lucas model with two independent debt-financed trees. The transmission mechanism is that variations in the size of one tree impact the level of risk premium and the default decision for all borrowers. If a negative shock hits one tree,...

Recent literature suggests that trading by institutional investors may affect the first and second moments of returns. Elaborating on this intuition, we conjecture that arbitrageurs can propagate liquidity shocks between related markets. The paper provides evidence in this direction by studying...

The recent crisis has demonstrated the close linkages between various asset classes within a country as well as the association between assets internationally. The aim of this research is to provide for a better understanding of some of these linkages by conducting an empirical investigation of...