Optimal investment of firms implies that expected stock returns are tied with the expected marginal benefit of investment divided by the marginal cost of investment. Winners have higher expected growth and expected marginal productivity (two major components of the marginal benefit of...

We offer an investment-based interpretation of price and earnings momentum. The neoclassical theory of investment implies that expected stock returns are tied with the expected marginal benefit of investment divided by the marginal cost of investment. Winners have higher expected growth and...

There is substantial evidence that indicates that stocks that perform the best (worst) over a three to 12 month period tend to continue to perform well (poorly) over the subsequent three to 12 months. Up until recently, trading strategies that exploit this phenomenon were consistently profitable...

We evaluate the robustness of momentum returns in the US stock market over the period 1965 to 2012. We find that momentum profits have become insignificant since the late 1990s. Investigations of momentum profits in high and low volatility months address the concerns about unprecedented levels...

We examine the information content of high accruals momentum defined as a string of high discretionary accruals for four consecutive years. We find that firms that consistently report high levels of discretionary accruals experience low subsequent returns. The results are robust after we control...

We analyze a novel alpha momentum strategy that invests in stocks based on three-factor alphas which we estimate using daily returns. The empirical analysis for the U.S. and for Europe shows that i) past alpha has power in predicting the cross-section of stock returns, ii) alpha momentum...

Machine learning techniques have gained enormously in popularity in recent years, but so far only to a very limited extent in fixed income research. In this paper we therefore like to do some pioneering work and apply Boosted Regression Trees to Equity Momentum in the corporate bond market. We...

Since momentum arbitrage activity, buying winners and selling losers, effectively enlarges the return spread between these two groups, I find that the momentum spread (the difference of the formation-period recent 6-month returns between winners and losers) negatively predicts future momentum...

We develop a continuous-time asset price model to capture short-run momentum and long-run reversal. By studying a dynamic asset allocation problem, we derive the optimal investment strategy in closed form and show that the combined momentum and reversal strategies are optimal. We then estimate...

High momentum returns cannot be explained by risk factors, but they are negatively skewed and subject to occasional severe crashes. I explore the timing of momentum crashes and show that momentum strategies tend to crash in 1-3 months after the local stock market plunge. Next, I propose a simple...