This paper studies the potential gains of monetary and macro-prudential policies that lean against news-driven boom-bust cycles in housing prices and credit generated by expectations of future macroeconomic developments. First, we find no trade-off between the traditional goals of monetary...

The authors analyze the effects of government spending cuts on economic activity in an environment of severe fiscal strain, as reflected by a sizeable risk premium on government debt. Specifically, they consider a 'sovereign risk channel,' through which sovereign default risk spills over to the...

This paper analyzes how effective macroeconomic policy actions are in ending recessions. We also investigate which structural factors help the country to get out of recessions, in other words experience shorter recessions. We implement survival regression analysis and conclude that expansionary...

Low interest rate environment encourages borrowing. During inevitable downturns in business cycles, heavy borrowing makes it more vulnerable to financial crisis. Low interest rate environments also favor high fixed cost investments, which have low variable costs and hence, have more significant...

This paper studies the extent to which alternative loan loss provisioning regimes affect the procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability. It uses a DSGE model with financial frictions (namely, balance sheet and collateral effects, as well as economies of scope in banking) and...

The prevailing narrative about the Great Recession is that it was caused by a financial crisis. This paper refutes that explanation and offers an alternative, namely that issuance of bad government debt played a key role in escalating a regular recession to an economic crisis

Modern macroeconomists in the Austrian tradition can be divided into two groups: Rothbardians and monetary equilibrium (ME) theorists. It is from this latter perspective that we consider the events of the last few years. We argue that the primary source of business fluctuation is monetary...

In this paper we investigate the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic activity in the euro area by using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with heterogenous agents and a stylized banking sector. We show that frictions in credit supply amplify the effects of uncertainty...

In this paper, I incorporate a complex network model into a state of the art stochastic general equilibrium framework with an active interbank market. On this market banks exchange funds one another giving rise to a complex network of interbanking relations. With the tools of network analysis it...

We propose a theoretical framework to reconcile episodes of V-shaped and L-shaped recovery, en- compassing the behaviour of the U.S. economy before and after the Great Recession. In a DSGE model with endogenous growth, negative demand shocks destroy productive capacity, moving GDP to a lower...