Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and Hidden Semi-Markov Models (HSMMs) provide flexible, general-purpose models for univariate and multivariate time series. Although interest in HMMs and HSMMs has continuously increased during the past years, and numerous articles on theoretical and practical aspects...

We explore the relative weekly stock market volatility forecasting performance of the linear univariate MIDAS regression model based on squared daily returns vis-a-vis the benchmark model of GARCH(1,1) for a set of four developed and ten emerging market economies. We first estimate the two...

What is the effect of either European Central Bank and Federal Reserve monetary policies on the Italian Index Mibtel? This paper aims to evaluate the impact of monetary policy announcements of the most important Central Banks on the volatility of returns which have been considered at both...

The Asian crisis took place against a background of exchange rate regimes that were characterized as soft pegs. This has led many analysts to conclude that “the peg did it” and that emerging markets (EMs) should “just say no” to pegged exchange rates. We present evidence that EMs are...

This paper presents non-parametric estimates of spectral risk measures applied to long and short positions in 5 prominent equity futures contracts. It also compares these to estimates of two popular alternative measures, the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). The spectral risk...

Based on long range dependence, some analysts claim that the exchange rate time series of the pound sterling and of an artificially extended euro have been locked together for years despite daily changes [1, 9]. They conclude that pound and euro are in practice the same currency. We assess the...

This paper illustrates the use of real options principles to value prototypical resource and industryinvestment projects. It captures important competitive/strategic dimensions in a step-by-stepanalysis of investment decisions (options) under uncertainty. It compares and contrasts...

Return and volatility spillover among Indian stock market with that of 12 other developed and emerging Asian countries over a period from November 1997 to April 2008 is studied. Daily opening and closing prices of all major equity indices from the sample countries are examined by applying the...

This paper examines volatility in REITs using a multivariate GARCH based model. The Multivariate VARGARCH technique documents the return and volatility linkages between REIT sub-sectors and also examines the influence of other US equity series. The motivation is for investors to incorporate...

The volatility clustering often seen in financial data has increased the interest of researchers in applying good models to measure and forecast stock returns. This paper aims to model the volatility for daily and weekly returns of the Portuguese Stock Index PSI-20. By using simple GARCH,...