We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...

This paper introduces a new out-of-sample forecasting methodology for monthly market returns using the variance risk premium (VRP) that is both statistically and economically significant. This methodology is motivated by the `beta representation,' which implies that the market risk premium is...

In this paper I show that information about fundamentals of the aggregate economy derived from closely held firms help predict stock returns. I construct a new economy-wide dividend price ratio that takes into account dividends and market capitalization of both listed (public) and non-listed...

This paper introduces a novel, option-free methodology to calculate the tail risk premium for individual stocks, and examines the characteristics of this premium in the cross section of stock returns. The existence of a premium for bearing negative tail risk is significantly associated with...

The risk premium of stocks due to priced variance risk is summarized to two variables -- the stock-specific price of variance risk (the difference between realized and option-implied variance) and the quantity (i.e., how stock prices respond to their variance shocks) of variance risk....

Aggregate dividend growth is widely thought to be unpredictable by the dividend price ratio. I show that this lack of predictability is related to the measurement of dividends. If M&A cash flows are taken into account, the adjusted R2 from a regression of dividend growth on the dividend price...

We investigate the relative ability of two measures of the market implied cost of capital to predict aggregate equity market returns. One is Aggregate ICC, which is a weighted average of individual firms' ICC's. The other is ICC calculated using index information (Index ICC). Index ICC predicts...

Recent evidence on the relationship between investor sentiment and subsequent monthly market returns in China shows that investor sentiment is a reliable momentum predictor since an increase (decrease) in investor sentiment leads to higher (lower) future returns. However, we suggest that...

We examine the post-IPO excess stock returns of hospitality firms from 1996 to 2012 and find underperformance relative to the market on average. However, there are large differences in returns and some firms significantly outperform. We demonstrate that a substantial portion of this variation...