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This study aims at comparing Google Search Volume Indices (GSVIs—including market crash and bear market) and VIX (Investor Fear Gauge Index) in terms of explaining the S&P 500 returns. The VIX is found a more robust predictor of stock market returns than Google indices, and it does granger...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011886968
AdaBoost tweaks the sample weight for each training set used in the iterative process, however, it is demonstrated that it provides more correlated errors as the boosting iteration proceeds if models’ accuracy is high enough. Therefore, in this study, we propose a novel way to improve the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013308395
This paper documents law of one price violations in equity volatility markets. While tightly linked by no …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012391498
closely and has certain other advantages. Second, we introduce a volatility index that provides a lower bound on the market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012489383
dynamic factor and a vector autoregressive model and includes stochastic volatility, denoted by FAVAR-SV. Next, a Bayesian … momentum strategy. The estimation of this modeling and strategy approach can be done using an extended and modified version of … risk features like volatility and largest loss, which indicates that complete densities provide useful information for risk. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011563065
microstructure noise and to obtain consistent estimates of the integrated volatility (IV) as a measure of ex-post daily volatility …. Even bias-corrected and consistent (modified) realized volatility (RV) estimates of the integrated volatility can contain … residual microstructure noise and other measurement errors. Such noise is called “realized volatility error”. As such …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013156240
We investigate the question whether macroeconomic variables contain information about future stock volatility beyond … that contained in past volatility. We show that forecasts of GDP and industrial production growth from the Federal Reserve …'s Survey of Professional Forecasters predict volatility in a cross-section of 49 industry portfolios. The expectation of higher …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012917967
We investigate the question of whether macroeconomic variables contain information about future stock volatility beyond … that contained in past volatility. We show that forecasts of GDP growth from the Federal Reserve's Survey of Professional … Forecasters predict volatility in a cross-section of 49 industry portfolios. The expectation of higher growth rates is associated …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011914124
which depending on the market states signaled by the level of volatility spread. We have documented that effectively, there … capital. We then propose the volatility spread as the active management factor into the Carhart's model used to evaluate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012146691
Realized covariance models specify the conditional expectation of a realized covariance matrix as a function of past realized covariance matrices through a GARCH-type structure. We compare the forecasting performance of several such models in terms of economic value, measured through economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014434629