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This paper investigates the role of volatility risk on stock return predictability. Using 596 stock options traded at … 2010 we examine the relation between different idiosyncratic volatility measures and expected stock returns for a period … that involves both the dotcom bubble and the recent financial crisis. We first show that implied idiosyncratic volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013046782
returns and the equity variance premium. We evaluate a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models to produce …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013034867
stock of recent theoretical insights on this model in Duchon et al. (2012) to derive forecasts of financial volatility … the RV framework. We compare the predictive ability of the two against seven classical and multifractal volatility models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012672178
Based on data until the mid 2000s, oil price changes were shown to predict international equity index returns with a negative predictive slope. Extending the sample to 2015, we document that this relationship has been reversed over the last ten years and therefore has not been stable over time....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012935742
In this paper we examine the pricing of volatility risk using SPX corridor implied volatility. We decompose model …-free total implied volatility into various components using different segments of the cross section of out-of-the money put and … call option prices. We find that only model-free volatility computed from the cross section of out-of-the-money call option …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013087088
volatility over the benchmark rational expectations case and exactly matches the standard deviation of consumption. Finally, the … model generates time varying volatility consistent with the data on quarterly equity returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013054127
returns and the equity variance premium. We evaluate a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models to produce …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013054678
AdaBoost tweaks the sample weight for each training set used in the iterative process, however, it is demonstrated that it provides more correlated errors as the boosting iteration proceeds if models’ accuracy is high enough. Therefore, in this study, we propose a novel way to improve the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013308395
conditional volatility and strongly support the estimation of dynamic returns that allow for time-varying correlations. A …This study examines the statistical properties required to model the dynamics of both the returns and volatility series … adequately estimate long-memory dynamics in returns and volatility. The in-sample diagnostic tests as well as out …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013272684
Carlo method, to facilitate the parameter estimation. Our simulation study shows that the GG estimation method outperforms … the benchmark quasi-maximum likelihood estimation method. We then proceed to the empirical study of seven stock markets …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013236407