We present a mixed frequency repeat sales model for commercial real estate, taking into account changes in net operating income between the date of buying and selling the property. Moreover, we relate monthly private market index asset returns to lags, up to one year, of daily REIT returns. The...

The general purpose of a dynamic factor model (DFM) is to summarize a large number of time series into a few common factors. Here we explore a number of DFM specifications applied to 80 granular, non-overlapping indexes of commercial property prices in the US, quarterly from 2001 to 2017. We...

In this paper we combine a random effects model with different machine learning algorithms via an iterative process when predicting commercial real estate asset values. Using both random effects and machine learning allows us to combine the strengths of both approaches. The random effects will...

Combining granular data on temperatures across the continental US with micro-level commercial real estate (CRE) data from 1980 to 2020, we study the impact of exposure to extreme temperature shocks on investment performance of CRE at the individual asset level. We find that exposure to extreme...

We investigate how local information externalities affect investments in tangible durable assets via real options. Using geocoded transaction-level data on US commercial properties from 2000 to 2018, we find that investors have a higher propensity to invest in a property for immediate...

This paper explores the question of whether real estate development (RED) projects systematically present positive net present value (NPV) and therefore, provide super-normal profit. Such projects are the products of a business operation that governs the exercise of the real call option on...

Private real estate markets have experienced signi ficant in inflows of institutional capital over the last couple of decades. In this paper we seek to understand what are the implications of this recent development. Employing a generalized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Bayesian procedure we find...

In this paper we analyze market segmentation by firm size in the commercial real estate transaction process. Using novel micro-level data, we look at the probability distribution of investors acquiring a speci fic bundle of real estate characteristics, distinguishing between investors based on...

In December 2017, the U.S. Congress passed into law the Opportunity Zone (OZ) program, offering significant tax benefits for property investments in designated low-income census tracts. As investors effectively gain from higher income, opportunity zones should affect property prices. In this...

In this paper we analyze the underlying economic mechanisms that might be driving the observed patterns in commercial real estate prices, as an interplay between buyer and seller characteristics (in terms of their size, capital constraints and market knowledge), and the timing and geographical...