them. I find that negative management forecast surprises lead to a –5.9% abnormal return around the forecast and a 1 ….9% abnormal return and a –1.7% correction. The level of the stock market overreaction varies with the forecast and firm … characteristics, but the marginal impact remains the same: a 1% change in the stock market reaction around the forecast is associated …

In this paper, we examined and compared the forecast performances of the dynamic Nelson–Siegel (DNS), dynamic Nelson …–Siegel–Svensson (DNSS), and arbitrage-free Nelson–Siegel (AFNS) models after the financial crisis period. The best model for the forecast … that the AFNS is superior to the DNS model in the long forecast horizon. …

Ludvigson-Ng macro factors significantly improve out-of-sample forecast gains. We also find that variance forecasts can be …

's employing institution places a disproportionately large reliance on the forecast. There is pervasive evidence that this reliance … reaction consistent with the forecast. Reference dependence and loss aversion offer one possible explanation for this …

-based predictors can uniquely forecast the foresting errors made by economists, especially during 2021-22, and its predictability is …