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In this study we consider the risk estimation as a stochastic process based on the Sample Quantile Process (SQP …) - which is a generalization of the Value-at-Risk calculated on a rolling sample. Using SQP's, we are able to show and quantify … the pro-cyclicality of the current way financial institutions measure their risk. Analysing 11 stock indices, we show that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012919289
Standard realized volatility (RV) measures estimate the latent volatility of an asset price using high frequency data with no reference to how or where the estimate will subsequently be used. This paper presents methods for “tailoring” the estimate of volatility to the application in which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014255167
Robustness of risk measures to changes in underlying loss distributions (distributional uncertainty) is of crucial … importance when making well-informed risk management decisions. In this paper, we quantify for any given distortion risk measure … application to model risk assessment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012825260
risk management, trading and hedging activities as well as in the pricing of equity derivatives …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013105503
We define risk spillover as the dependence of a given asset variance on the past covariances and variances of other … international equity portfolio. According to the risk management strategy proposed, portfolio risk is seen as a specific combination … currencies. In this framework, we focus on the risk spillovers across equities within the same sector (sector spillover), and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010407672
We document a substantial increase in downside risk to US economic growth over the last 30 years. By modelling secular … risk provided by current financial conditions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226483
returns. For multivariate density and portfolio risk forecasting, a drawback of these models is the underlying assumption of …. An extensive empirical study confirms the COMFORT model’s superiority in terms of multivariate density and Value-at-Risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236254
Measuring bias is important as it helps identify flaws in quantitative forecasting methods or judgmental forecasts. It can, therefore, potentially help improve forecasts. Despite this, bias tends to be under represented in the literature: many studies focus solely on measuring accuracy. Methods...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314570
Although survey-based point predictions have been found to outperform successful forecasting models, corresponding variance forecasts are frequently diagnosed as heavily distorted. Forecasters who report inconspicuously low ex-ante variances often produce squared forecast errors that are much...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843568
Although survey-based point predictions have been found to outperform successful forecasting models, corresponding variance forecasts are frequently diagnosed as heavily distorted. Forecasters who report inconspicuously low ex-ante variances often produce squared forecast errors that are much...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843598